The annual consumer inflation (CPI) expectations for the end of 2026 rose to 24.11 percent in the latest Central Bank survey, up from 23.23 percent in the previous round.
The Survey of Market Participants, released on Feb. 13, showed that the 12‑month ahead CPI expectation edged down slightly to 22.1 percent from 22.20 percent, while the 24‑month ahead expectation increased to 17.11 percent from 16.94 percent.
Türkiye’s annual inflation rate eased to 30.65 percent in January, marking its fourth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest level since November 2021.
In its inflation report published on Feb. 12, the Central Bank projected year‑end inflation in the 15–21 percent range.
Interim inflation targets were reaffirmed at 16 percent for 2026 and 9 percent for 2027, Governor Fatih Karahan said at a press conference in Istanbul.
The bank’s previous report had forecast inflation at the end of 2026 in the 13–19 percent range.
“We have always reiterated that during the disinflation process, we will maintain our tight monetary policy stance to achieve our interim targets,” Karahan said.
He added that the cautious stance, which will remain in place until price stability is secured, will reinforce disinflation through demand, exchange rate and expectation channels.
The survey also revealed expectations for monetary policy and other key indicators. For the March Monetary Policy Committee meeting, participants projected the policy rate at 36.08 percent.
In January, the bank reduced its policy rate by 100 basis points, slowing the pace of its ongoing easing cycle.
The bank on Jan 22 lowered the one-week repo auction rate from 38 percent to 37 percent. Most economists had expected the bank to deliver a 150-basis-point reduction.
In December 2025, it slashed the main interest rate by 150 basis points.
The year‑end exchange rate expectation for the U.S. dollar/Turkish lira stood at 51.09, slightly down from 51.17 in the previous survey. The 12‑month ahead exchange rate expectation rose to 52.39 from 51.89.
Growth expectations for 2026 and 2027 remained unchanged at 3.9 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively.
The Survey of Market Participants tracks the views of decision‑makers and experts in the financial and real sectors on a range of economic variables, offering insight into market sentiment and expectations.
